What is Roth Capital’s Estimate for Progressive Q4 Earnings?

The Progressive Co. (NYSE:PGR) – Equities researchers at Roth Capital lifted their Q4 2025 earnings estimates for Progressive in a report released on Tuesday, February 25th. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now expects that the insurance provider will post earnings per share of $3.77 for the quarter, up from their previous forecast of $3.75. The consensus estimate for Progressive’s current full-year earnings is $14.68 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Progressive’s Q1 2026 earnings at $3.60 EPS, Q2 2026 earnings at $3.55 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $3.72 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $3.84 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $14.70 EPS.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, January 29th. The insurance provider reported $4.08 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $3.44 by $0.64. Progressive had a return on equity of 33.79% and a net margin of 11.25%.

Other equities analysts also recently issued reports about the company. Bank of America upped their target price on Progressive from $331.00 to $335.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, November 18th. HSBC lowered Progressive from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating and set a $267.00 price objective for the company. in a research note on Tuesday, December 10th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. upped their target price on Progressive from $251.00 to $256.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research note on Friday, January 3rd. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reduced their price target on Progressive from $295.00 to $294.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a research report on Friday, January 10th. Finally, Roth Mkm boosted their price target on Progressive from $290.00 to $315.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Tuesday. Six investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and thirteen have assigned a buy rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Progressive presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $277.59.

Progressive Stock Performance

PGR opened at $273.13 on Wednesday. The firm’s 50-day moving average price is $248.63 and its 200-day moving average price is $250.30. The company has a market cap of $160.00 billion, a P/E ratio of 18.97, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.70 and a beta of 0.42. The company has a quick ratio of 0.30, a current ratio of 0.31 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27. Progressive has a 52-week low of $186.94 and a 52-week high of $280.25.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Progressive

A number of large investors have recently made changes to their positions in PGR. Norges Bank purchased a new stake in Progressive in the 4th quarter valued at $1,843,045,000. GQG Partners LLC boosted its position in shares of Progressive by 67.6% during the 4th quarter. GQG Partners LLC now owns 5,171,501 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $1,239,143,000 after acquiring an additional 2,085,833 shares during the last quarter. Raymond James Financial Inc. purchased a new stake in shares of Progressive in the fourth quarter valued at about $408,416,000. Geode Capital Management LLC increased its position in Progressive by 13.2% during the third quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 14,425,792 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $3,652,235,000 after purchasing an additional 1,682,213 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Capital Research Global Investors raised its stake in Progressive by 34.3% during the fourth quarter. Capital Research Global Investors now owns 6,058,187 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $1,451,602,000 after purchasing an additional 1,547,677 shares during the period. 85.34% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In other news, CFO John P. Sauerland sold 10,000 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Friday, November 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $268.09, for a total value of $2,680,900.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer now directly owns 292,958 shares in the company, valued at $78,539,110.22. This represents a 3.30 % decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this link. Also, CAO Mariann Wojtkun Marshall sold 191 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Friday, January 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $242.10, for a total transaction of $46,241.10. Following the transaction, the chief accounting officer now owns 3,982 shares in the company, valued at $964,042.20. The trade was a 4.58 % decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders have sold a total of 56,361 shares of company stock worth $13,983,575 over the last quarter. 0.34% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Progressive Dividend Announcement

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, January 16th. Shareholders of record on Thursday, January 9th were issued a dividend of $0.10 per share. The ex-dividend date was Friday, January 10th. This represents a $0.40 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.15%. Progressive’s payout ratio is currently 2.78%.

About Progressive

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.